Sunday, January 18, 2015

SNB leaves policy vacuum after shock removal of franc cap

Wow that was big!!!

Look at the big moves on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, GBP/CHF. I never liked trading EUR/CHF, but USD/CHF & GBP/CHF, I look for trade opportunities & specially GBP/CHF is my favourite to trade London Open Breakout. 

Now everyone understands why stop loss is very important.

"The Swiss National Bank’s decision to remove its currency peg against the Euro on Thursday continues to send shock waves through the market. The decision was a complete surprise, as a bank official reaffirmed its commitment to the policy just two days before the peg was removed."
Here are the screen shots of EUR/CHF:

EUR/CHF Daily Chart

EUR/CHF H1 Chart

EUR/CHF Monthly Chart

EUR/CHF Weekly Chart





Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Top 10 Forex Trading Rules

As I stumbled across a great piece of Forex article, I thought to share with you all.
Anyway my intention to start the new year 2015 with a big and nice post on my blog.





Happy New Year 2015.

This article is from investopedia:
http://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/top-10-forex-trading-rules/

My favourites are rule no. 3 & 9:


* Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade

* Risk Can Be Predetermined; Reward Is Unpredictable


Trading Is An Art, Not A Science

The systems and ideas presented here stem from years of observation of price action in this market and provide high probability approaches to trading both trend and counter-trend setups, but they are by no means a surefire guarantee of success. No trade setup is ever 100% accurate. Therefore, no rule in trading is ever absolute (except the one about always using stops!). Nevertheless, these 10 rules work well across a variety of market environments, and will help to keep you out of harm's way.

1. Never Let A Winner Turn Into A Loser

The FX markets can move fast, with gains turning into losses in a matter of minutes, making it critical to properly manage your capital. There is nothing worse than watching your trade be up 30 points one minute, only to see it completely reverse a short while later and take out your stop 40 points lower. You can protect your profits by using trailing stops and trading more than one lot.

2. Logic Wins; Impulse Kills

It can be a huge rush when a trader is on a winning streak, but just one bad loss can make the same trader give all of the profits and trading capital back to the market. Reason always trumps impulse because logically focused traders will know how to limit their losses, while impulsive traders are never more than one trade away from total bankruptcy. 

3. Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade

This is the most common and most violated rule in trading. Trading books are littered with stories of traders losing one, two, even five years' worth of profits in a single trade gone terribly wrong. By setting a 2% stop-loss for each trade, you would have to sustain 10 consecutive losing trades in a row to lose 20% of your account. 

4. Use Both Technical And Fundamental Analysis

Both methods are important and have a hand in impacting price action.Fundamentals are good at dictating the broad themes in the market that can last for weeks months or even years. Technicals can change quickly and are useful for identifying specific entry and exit levels. A rule of thumb is to trigger fundamentally and enter and exit technically. For example, if the market is fundamentally a dollar-positive environment, we'd technically look for opportunities to buy on dips rather than sell on rallies.

5. Always Pair Strong With Weak

When a strong army is positioned against a weak army, the odds are heavily skewed toward the strong army winning. This is the way you should approach trading. When we trade currencies, we are always dealing in pairs - every trade involves buying one currency and shorting another. Because strength and weakness can last for some time as economic trends evolve, pairing the strong with the weak currency is one of the best ways for traders to gain an edge in the currency market. 

6. Being Right And Early Means You Are Wrong

In FX, successful directional trades not only need to be right in analysis, but they also need to be right in timing as well. If the price action moves against you, even if the reasons for your trade remain valid, trust your eyes, respect the market and take a modest stop. In the currency market, being right and being early is the same as being wrong. Consider a scenario where a trader takes a short position during a rally in anticipation of a turnaround. The rally continues for longer than anticipated, so the trader exits early and takes a loss - only to find that the rally eventually did turn around and their original position could have been profitable.

7. Differentiate Between Scaling In And Adding To A Loser

The difference between adding to a loser and scaling in is your initial intent before you place the trade. Adding to a losing position that has gone beyond the point of your original risk is the wrong way to trade. There are, however, times when adding to a losing position is the right way to trade. For example, if your ultimate goal is to buy a 100,000 lot, and you establish a position in clips of 10,000 lots to get a better average price, this type of strategy is known as scaling in. 

8. What Is Mathematically Optimal Is Psychologically Impossible

Novice traders who first approach the markets will often design very elegant, very profitable strategies that appear to generate millions of dollars on a computer back-test. Armed with such stellar research, these newbies fund their FX trading accounts and promptly proceed to lose all of their money. Why? Because trading is not logical but psychological in nature, and emotion will always overwhelm the intellect in the end. Conventional wisdom in the markets is that traders should always trade with a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio, the trader can be wrong 6.5 times out of 10 and still make money. In practice this is quite difficult to achieve.

9. Risk Can Be Predetermined; Reward Is Unpredictable

Before entering every trade, you must know your pain threshold. You need to figure out what the worst-case scenario is and place your stop based on a monetary or technical level. Every trade, no matter how certain you are of its outcome, is an educated guess. Nothing is certain in trading. Reward, on the other hand, is unknown. When a currency moves, the move can be huge or small. 

10. No Excuses, Ever

The "no excuses" rule is applicable to those times when the trader does not understand the price action of the markets. For example, if you are short a currency because you anticipate negative fundamental news and that news occurs, but the currency rallies instead, you must get out right away. If you do not understand what is going on in the market, it is always better to step aside and not trade. That way, you will not have to come up with excuses for why you blew up your account. It's acceptable to sustain a draw down of 10% if it was the result of five consecutive losing trades that were stopped out at a 2% loss each. However, it is inexcusable to lose 10% on one trade because the trader refused to cut his losses.